On the streets of Enugu city this week, many school pupils, traders, and artisans abandoned buses and taxis to trek to their destinations. This sudden shift in daily commute followed an unexpected 10% increase in transport fares, a direct consequence of a spiraling fuel price crisis. The fare hike is the most immediate local symptom of a global supply shock now hitting Nigerian consumers.
Records show Dangote Petroleum Refinery raised the gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, to ₦1,175 per litre on Monday. This marked the refinery's third price increase in a single week, up from ₦995 on March 7 and ₦874 just five days earlier on March 2. The company cited the soaring global cost of crude oil, a situation it directly linked to the war between Iran and the United States and Israel.
The conflict triggering this economic chain reaction began on February 28 with US-Israeli strikes that killed Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Tehran vowed retaliation, with Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stating definitively, 'Certainly we aren't seeking a ceasefire.' By Tuesday, fresh explosions thundered in Tehran, and Iran remained defiant, threatening that no crude exports would leave the Gulf if bombardment continued.
Global energy markets are bracing for further disruption centered on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint. A quarter of the world's seaborne oil and a fifth of all liquefied natural gas normally pass through this narrow waterway. CNN reported that Iran had begun laying explosives in the strait, a move former US President Donald Trump publicly warned against. The conflict has already caused physical damage, closing the UAE's biggest oil refinery at Ruwais on Tuesday after a drone attack.
Back in Nigeria, the ripple effects are severe and multifaceted. Beyond petrol, the price of diesel has skyrocketed to around ₦1,500 per litre, up from roughly ₦995 to ₦1,000 just days ago. For businesses like that of entrepreneur Kunle Afolayan, the cost is unsustainable. 'I can't cope with ₦1,500 per litre of diesel,' Afolayan said, revealing he spends a staggering ₦11 million on fuel every four to five weeks to keep his operations running.
Facing a national crisis, President Bola Tinubu has directed the immediate deployment of approximately 100,000 Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) conversion kits across the country. The deployment is scheduled to begin within the next two to three weeks, aiming to provide an alternative to expensive petrol and diesel. However, the existing infrastructure is limited, with only about 77 CNG refilling stations currently at various stages of development nationwide.
The speed and scale of the price increases have left citizens and the economy vulnerable. Fuel prices in Nigeria have now hit over ₦1,000 per litre, a threshold directly attributed to the Middle East war. This external shock exposes the continued fragility of Nigeria's energy supply chain, where domestic refining capacity remains insufficient to insulate the market from international volatility.
The immediate future hinges on both geopolitics and local policy. With Iran showing no signs of backing down and global supply lines under threat, further price instability is likely. The effectiveness of the government's CNG kit deployment in the coming weeks will be a critical test of its ability to mitigate the crisis for millions of Nigerians already feeling the pinch in their daily travel and livelihoods.
