Nigeria posted a ₦1.71 trillion trade surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to official data from the National Bureau of Statistics. This positive trade balance emerged despite a documented decline in the country's total merchandise trade during the same period. The surplus indicates that the value of Nigeria's exports continued to exceed its imports, even as overall trade volume contracted.
The surplus arrives against a backdrop of falling crude oil exports, a traditional pillar of the nation's external earnings. The decline in total merchandise trade suggests a broader slowdown in both export and import activities. This economic performance highlights a complex adjustment within Nigeria's trade dynamics, where reduced overall trade still yielded a significant financial surplus for the quarter.
However, the macroeconomic picture contrasts sharply with severe pressures on the ground for Nigerian businesses. Diesel is now selling at around ₦1,500 per litre, a price point that is crippling operational costs. Business owner Kunle Afolayan stated plainly, 'I can't cope with the ₦1,500 per litre of diesel,' illustrating the direct impact of the energy crisis on commercial viability.
Afolayan's financial burden is quantifiable and severe; he reported spending ₦11 million on diesel every four to five weeks to maintain operations. This extraordinary expense for a single input reflects how soaring energy costs are eroding profit margins and threatening business continuity across sectors. The high cost of diesel, essential for powering generators amid unreliable grid electricity, acts as a major tax on productivity.
Compounding the diesel crisis, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery raised the gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, for the third time in one week. This series of rapid increases points to significant volatility and upward pressure in the refined petroleum products market. The concurrent hikes in both diesel and petrol prices create a dual burden for transportation, manufacturing, and household budgets.
The domestic refinery's pricing actions, coupled with the imported diesel costs, signal a profound energy supply challenge. These developments occur even as the country maintains a trade surplus, suggesting that the benefits of favorable trade balances are not insulating the domestic economy from inflationary shocks. The situation reveals a disconnect between national account statistics and the immediate cost-of-living reality for citizens and enterprises.
In a separate regulatory development, the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) granted Enugu Air a licence to begin commercial flight operations. This expansion of domestic air travel capacity represents a long-term infrastructure investment. It operates independently of the immediate trade and energy data, focusing instead on improving regional connectivity and transport options within the country.
The National Bureau of Statistics is expected to release a detailed breakdown of the Q4 2025 trade data, including specific export and import categories, in the coming weeks. This subsequent report will provide critical insight into which sectors drove the surplus despite the overall trade decline and how non-oil exports are performing.
