Nigeria's average daily consumption of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, fell significantly to 56.9 million litres per day in February, down from 60.2 million litres per day in January. This decline points to more than just fluctuating demand—it's a symptom of broader economic pressure and a supply chain under stress.
The Supply Squeeze
The drop in consumption coincided with a steep reduction in imports, which fell by approximately 25.4 million litres per day. Compounding the issue, Nigeria's local refineries continued to underperform, contributing less than 20% of the nation's petrol supply. To bridge this gap, the country has been drawing on its strategic reserves, which currently stand at a level sufficient for about 31 days.
The Price Paradox
Despite the official reduction of the gantry price from ₦1,175 to ₦1,075 per litre, a stark disparity exists on the ground. In Lagos, marketers are selling petrol for between ₦1,150 and ₦1,250 per litre, with areas like Ajegunle and Festac seeing prices as high as ₦1,225. This gap between official policy and market reality places a direct burden on consumers and businesses.
The Political Undercurrent
This economic strain is unfolding against a backdrop of heightened political discourse. A prominent voice from the country's southeast region recently lamented its perceived marginalization, stating the zone has 'never been as politically fragmented and disconnected from the centre as it is now.' He highlighted exclusion from critical national discussions and pointed to protocol rankings as evidence, arguing for a higher position reflective of the region's stake in national affairs.
This grievance is intrinsically linked to power dynamics. The same figure noted that other regions now secure presidential victories without relying on votes from the southeast, a stark admission that underscores how political strategy and regional alignment are being recalibrated.
What This Means
The falling fuel consumption is a key economic indicator. It suggests households and businesses are cutting back due to high costs, impacting mobility and commerce. Coupled with supply vulnerabilities and simmering political tensions, it paints a picture of a nation navigating complex challenges on multiple fronts. The sustainability of current reserve levels and the trajectory of refinery performance will be critical to watch in the coming months.
