Nigeria's total foreign trade in goods fell to N36.21 trillion in the final three months of 2025, a decline driven by a significant drop in the value of crude oil exports. The data, released by the National Bureau of Statistics, shows the country's economic engine sputtering as global oil prices retreated. This marks a notable contraction in the value of goods Nigeria bought from and sold to the rest of the world.
Crude oil exports, the traditional backbone of Nigeria's economy, were valued at N9.70 trillion in the fourth quarter. This figure represented 51.17% of the country's total exports, highlighting how dependent Nigeria remains on a single commodity. The decline in overall trade value is directly linked to this sector's performance, as lower prices and potentially lower volumes hit government revenue and foreign exchange earnings.
The global context for this drop is clear: the price of a barrel of crude oil fell to $88 from a previous level of $110. This sharp decrease in the international market price directly reduces the naira value of every barrel Nigeria sells abroad. In other words, even if Nigeria exported the same number of barrels, the total revenue would be significantly lower, contributing to the trade figure slump.
Despite the overall trade decline, Nigeria's trade balance—the difference between the value of its exports and imports—remained positive. The country recorded a surplus of N1.71 trillion for the quarter. This means the value of goods Nigeria sold to other countries still exceeded the value of goods it purchased from them, a crucial metric for economic stability and currency strength.
The trade data intersects with significant developments in Nigeria's domestic fuel market. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, a massive private facility, reduced its ex-gantry petrol price by N100 per litre to N1,075. An ex-gantry price is the cost at which the refinery sells fuel to marketers before they add their own costs and transport it to stations. This rare price cut occurred against a backdrop where pump prices in parts of the country were still over N1,300 per litre, indicating high distribution and retail markups.
Simultaneously, the Nigerian Naira showed mixed signals in currency markets. The Naira depreciated, or lost value, to N1,420 per US dollar in the parallel market—an unofficial exchange channel—from N1,410 per dollar on a Monday. Conversely, it appreciated, or gained value, to N1,390.5 per dollar in the official Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market. This divergence between official and parallel rates often indicates foreign currency scarcity and market pressure.
In a separate political development, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu nominated Taiwo Oyedele as Minister of State for Finance. This key economic appointment comes as the government grapples with the trade shortfall and currency volatility. The nomination is unrelated to a past claim that former President Muhammadu Buhari appointed three relatives to ministerial-rank positions, which serves as historical context about political appointments in the country.
Looking ahead, the trajectory of Nigeria's trade and economy remains tied to volatile oil markets and domestic policy. The next quarterly trade report from the National Bureau of Statistics will reveal if this decline is a trend or a temporary dip. Furthermore, the effectiveness of new economic appointments and the stability of the Naira will be critical factors for Nigeria's financial health in 2026.
